Over the last two weeks, a significant increase in import rates from China to Russia has been recorded. The key factors include the traditional imbalance between imports and exports (accumulation of empty containers in Russia and their shortage in China), as well as transit restrictions via traditional hubs and shifting part of the services from transshipment to direct liner routes.
One method of balancing the situation has been the evacuation of empty 40-foot containers, which increases carriers' operational costs and affects rates for importers. Exports continue to be carried out predominantly in 20-foot containers due to cargo weight and density.
Earlier in August, stockpiles of new containers stabilized in China, leading to a reduction in subsidies from Chinese shipping lines. At the same time, the export of empty equipment from Russia decreased. These measures only temporarily relieved the pressure: in Moscow, the issue of empty container storage and return has intensified again.
The most noticeable rate surge is occurring in multimodal services via Far East ports, where the primary return of empty containers to the regions and Moscow takes place. For Novorossiysk and Saint Petersburg, the situation remains stable, though freight rates there are traditionally higher compared to the Far East.
According to data over the past two weeks:
rates to the border rose by 40%;
the railway component increased by approximately 5%;
further growth in both sea and rail components is anticipated in the coming month.
At the same time, industry experts point out that China has just concluded its national holidays, and the actual acceleration of rate increases is projected for November–December. No tariff decrease is expected before February: until January, an additional rate increase of up to 20% on freight via the Far East is possible.
This trend can only be reversed by leveling the export-import imbalance. Rates will also be affected by: normalized demand, an increase in the number of lines, and the expansion of direct overland rail traffic in both 40-foot and 20-foot containers. However, there are currently no prerequisites for this.