Over the past two weeks, there has been a significant increase in import rates from China to Russia. The main factors are the traditional imbalance between import and export (accumulation of empty containers in Russia and their shortage in China), as well as the limitation of transit through usual hubs and the transfer of some services from transshipment to direct lines.
One of the ways to balance the situation is the evacuation of empty 40-foot containers, which increases the costs for carriers and affects the rates for importers. Exports still mainly go in 20-foot containers due to the weight and density of the cargo.
Earlier, in August, the reserves of new containers stabilized in China, which led to a reduction in subsidies from Chinese lines. At the same time, the export of empty equipment from Russia decreased. These measures only temporarily reduced the tension: in Moscow, the issue of storing and exporting empty containers has become acute again.
The most noticeable increase in rates occurs in the multimodal service through the ports of the Far East, where the main discharge of empties to the regions and Moscow takes place. For Novorossiysk and St. Petersburg, the situation is stable, but even there, traditionally, freight rates are higher compared to the Far East.
According to data for the past two weeks:
rates to the border increased by 40%;
the railway part increased by about 5%;
in the coming month, further growth is expected in both the sea and railway components.
At the same time, experts note that China has just emerged from long holidays, and a real strengthening of the growth in rates is forecasted in November–December. No tariff reductions are expected before February: an additional growth of up to 20% on freight through the Far East is possible until January.
Only balancing the export-import imbalance can reverse the trend. Rates will also be affected by: normalization of demand, an increase in the number of lines, and the development of direct land railway communication in both 40-foot and 20-foot containers. However, there are no prerequisites for this now.